District Economics

What H.R. 1 actually does in MI-4, provision by provision

This is the first entry in what I'm treating as a per-bill series. Rather than one district-economics page trying to cover everything at once, each piece here takes a single law with a material impact on MI-4 residents and lays out what it actually changes, sourced to the bill's text and to Census and state fiscal data for this district. H.R. 1 goes first because it's the largest single piece of legislation of Huizenga's current term, and because he voted for it twice (Roll 145 and Roll 190).

Context: most of what's below hasn't shown up in anyone's paycheck or mailbox yet. H.R. 1's individual provisions mostly took effect for tax year 2025, but the pieces with the biggest stakes for lower-income households — Medicaid work requirements, Medicaid cost-sharing, the SALT cap's scheduled drop back to $10,000 — don't phase in until 2027 through 2030. Read the figures here as projections from the law's text and nonpartisan fiscal analysis, not as outcomes anyone has actually measured yet. You'll also see numbers at three different scales: MI-4 itself, Michigan statewide, and national. Each one is labeled for what it is, because a statewide figure isn't a district figure, however convenient that substitution would be. It's also worth stating plainly what this law costs beyond MI-4: CBO scores it at $3.4 trillion added to federal deficits over the next decade — on top of a national debt that's already crossed $40 trillion. That's not an abstract number — a bigger deficit is part of what makes Social Security and Medicare harder to keep solvent, not easier, the same trade-off covered in the Fiscal Responsibility and Entitlement Durability pieces.

MI-4's starting point

Baseline, before the bill

$74,722

Median household income in MI-4, most recent estimate.

Source: Census ACS via DataUSA

15.3%

Share of MI-4 residents covered by Medicaid — roughly 119,000 of the district's 778,930 people.

Source: Census ACS via DataUSA

11.8%

MI-4 poverty rate, most recent estimate.

Source: Census ACS via DataUSA

4.9%

MI-4 uninsured rate — the population a Medicaid eligibility change could push either direction.

Source: Census ACS via DataUSA

What changes for MI-4 households

Individual tax provisions

These provisions apply the same way in every district. The "why it matters here" column isn't about a unique local rule — it's about which of these actually bite, given MI-4's income mix and the industries that dominate it.

Provision	What it does	Why it matters in MI-4
No tax on tips	Above-the-line deduction of up to $25,000/year for tip income, 2025–2028; phases out above $150,000 MAGI single / $300,000 joint	Cuts taxes for lakeshore tourism-industry workers in South Haven, Saugatuck, and Douglas — seasonal, tip-dependent jobs concentrated in a few months of the year
No tax on overtime	Above-the-line deduction of up to $12,500/year (single) or $25,000 (joint) for overtime pay, 2025–2028; same income phase-out as above	Directly relevant to a district with a manufacturing base (auto parts, office furniture, medical devices) where overtime hours are common on the shop floor
SALT deduction cap raised	Cap raised from $10,000 to $40,000 (2025, joint filers), phasing down and reverting to $10,000 in 2030	Matters most for higher-income, higher-property-tax households — the segment of Ottawa County closest to Grand Rapids' growth has both
Child tax credit	Made permanent at $2,200 per child (2025), inflation-adjusted after	Broad-based; applies to any household with qualifying children regardless of industry
Auto loan interest deduction	Above-the-line deduction of up to $10,000/year on loans for U.S.-assembled vehicles taken after 2024; phases out roughly $100,000–$150,000 MAGI (single), $200,000–$250,000 (joint)	Narrow but real overlap with a district that makes auto parts, though it rewards buying a U.S.-assembled vehicle, not working in the industry
Estate and gift tax exemption	Raised to an inflation-indexed $15 million (single) / $30 million (joint), permanent starting 2026	Relevant to family-farm succession — MI-4's specialty-crop operations (apples, blueberries, cherries) carry land values that could have pushed mid-sized farms toward the old, lower exemption

What changes for MI-4 employers

Business provisions

Provision	What it does	Why it matters in MI-4
100% bonus depreciation, made permanent	Full, immediate expensing of qualified equipment placed in service after Jan. 19, 2025	Applies directly to farm equipment (tractors, irrigation systems) and manufacturing equipment purchases — the same category of capital spending covered by the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act grants Huizenga voted against extending (see Roll 304); this is the tax-code version of the same idea
Section 199A pass-through deduction, made permanent	20% deduction on qualified business income for sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S-corps; income phase-in range widened from $50,000/$100,000 to $75,000/$150,000 above the threshold	Most small and mid-sized farms and manufacturers in the district are organized as pass-through entities, not C-corporations — this deduction was set to expire at the end of 2025 before H.R. 1

What gets cut to pay for it

Medicaid and SNAP

H.R. 1 pays for part of its tax cuts with roughly $900 billion in federal Medicaid reductions and close to $200 billion in federal SNAP reductions over the budget window, achieved mostly through new work requirements and a shift of costs onto states. None of the SNAP figures below are MI-4-specific. A reliable district-level SNAP participation number doesn't appear to be published anywhere, so what follows instead is MI-4's own Medicaid share alongside Michigan's statewide SNAP rate, each labeled for what it actually is.

Jan. 1, 2027

Date Medicaid work requirements take effect: adults 19–64 must work, study, or volunteer at least 80 hours/month, or show income of 80× the federal minimum wage, to keep coverage. Applies to a program covering roughly 119,000 MI-4 residents today.

Source: H.R. 1 text, via Ballotpedia summary

14.7%

Share of Michigan's population receiving SNAP, statewide (FY2025). Not an MI-4 figure — no district-level SNAP data appears to exist publicly.

Source: USAFacts, based on USDA data

The bill's shadow on the state budget

Indirect, but real

None of this is an MI-4 number either. It's Michigan's, and it reaches this district the same way it reaches every other one: through the state services every district draws on. The nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan estimates the Medicaid and SNAP cost-shifts alone could add over $1 billion to state spending by FY2032. Separately, the same federal business-expensing changes that help MI-4 manufacturers and farms (100% bonus depreciation, discussed above) also cut Michigan's corporate income tax collections by an estimated $677 million in FY2026, because the state's tax code follows the federal depreciation schedule. Add it up, and Michigan's FY2026 budget needs roughly $1.1 billion in General Fund cuts, with OBBBA-related costs on track to consume about 40% of the state's expected General Fund revenue growth by FY2032. A tighter General Fund eventually means tighter room for the school foundation allowance, road funding, and revenue sharing that reach Allegan, Van Buren, and every other MI-4 county exactly the way they reach the rest of the state.

Source: Citizens Research Council of Michigan, State Budget Note 2025-01, July 29, 2025

What's not measured yet: an MI-4-specific SNAP participation count, a district-level estimate of how many Medicaid enrollees could lose coverage under the new work requirements versus how many already meet them, and a count of MI-4 workers in tipped or overtime-heavy jobs. Each of those would move this piece from what the law says to what it actually does here, but a reliable district-level figure for any of them doesn't appear to exist publicly right now. I'll add them the moment one does. See Methodology for the sourcing rules, or the Articles index for what else is planned.